What IS The Deal With Domestic Spying?

The thing that has bugged me -- me and millions of semi-sentient Americans -- about this whole NSA eavesdropping thing has been this: the FISA rules are so lenient, what could they be doing that could justify the judgment to ignore those oh-so-lenient rules and go the much more risky route of declaring that Bush is a de facto dictator.

Cue Larry Johnson, former CIA spook and special operations guy. He's been there and done that. In his post today, What is Bush Hiding? he spells it out for us:

So what is Bush up to? I see at least two possibilities. First, they may be allowing unfettered data mining on domestic targets without probable cause. An old fashioned "fishing" trip. You cast out a net and pull it in, picking over the contents, and hoping you snared the oyster with the big pearl. This nonsense works in a Tom Clancy novel but not in the real world. Even with the most robust computer power you have no simple way to find "actionable intelligence".

Second, the source of the intel tips is tainted. If you are generating leads from persons being held in secret prisons or if the info is obtained through torture, then it makes it difficult to make a truthful declaration before a judge. Why not lie to the FISA court? That's called perjury. I suspect this explains the real motive for the refusal of the Bush Administration to go the FISA route.

Based on what's been slowly dribbling out of NSA and the FBI, the administration seems to have gambled its entire existence and risked setting off a contitutional crisis to engage in a giant fishing expedition which to date has probably yielded bupkus.

As I've said many times before, with Bush it is not the specific policies that drive me into fits of apoplexy. It is the utterly stupefying levels of incompetence in implementing those policies.

Oil and Markets Update

Although North America is going through a warmer than usual winter leading to less oil and gas demand in the world's largest consumer, things are decidedly chilly in Eastern Europe. That, combined with supply uncertainty in Nigeria, Russia and Iran have conspired to begin to drive energy prices northward again. In fact, the market may finally be waking up to the long-term unsustainability of the oil supply and demand curves.

In several posts over the last couple of days the always must-read Barry Ritholtz looks at the implications of sustained high oil prices on the broader market indexes.

Hot or Not?

So to proclaim that Oil has absolutely no impact on stocks is both factually incorrect, and potentially dangerous. There is a tipping point for Oil and the Economy -- we have yet to cross that level -- but once we do, you can be sure that Oil will impact equity prices.

Where is the tipping point? I tihnk markets are "used to" $50 oil, uncomfortable at $60, and unpleasant over $65, and downright ornery over $70. You can see this reflected in last week's performance data.

Oil and the Markets

While the Dow industrials are down 0.5% for 2006, after a decline of 0.6% last year, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index both were up last year and still are showing gains this year. But Mr. Tower does worry that a bear market could begin some time this year, as investors become disenchanted with corporate performance and some are enticed away by higher interest rates in money-market funds and bonds.

If investors adjust this week to the Iran worries, some of that selling pressure could ease. But a more fundamental reason that investors are nervous is that they fear that some of the market's underpinnings have weakened, making it harder for stocks to hold up in the face of the oil and profit worries.

The Skinny on the Iranian Nuke

Before we begin, let's get one thing straight. Nuclear weapons are bad. Increasing the number of nations that possess nuclear weapons from the traditional six members of the club -- The U.S., Russia, England, France, China and Israel -- is worse. The idea of the Indians possessing The Bomb gives me the heeby-jeebies and I just don't like to think at all about Pakistan. Therefore, the Iranian Bomb is Bad, mmkay?

But, before we all rush off into whatever preemptive adventure our Dear Leader has in his peanut of a brain -- and mind you, if it were the case that Iran was about to produce an actual, functioning nuke I'd fly the B-2 myself -- let us clear something up. There is no urgency to act!

We have years to figure this out. So, as soon as some nut job tries to tell you that the Iranians are "just months away" from The Bomb and fear -monger us into not waiting until the smoking gun is a mushroom cloud, just point them over to where some actual nuclear weapons experts have done some actual math (PDF file) with some actual intelligence to come up with a worst case scenario of: THREE YEARS.

The nut graphs of this three part series at Arms Control Wonk:

Albright and Hinderstein have created a notional timeline for such a program:

• Assemble 1,300-1,600 centrifuges. Assuming Iran starts assembling centrifuges at a rate of 70-100/month, Iran will have enough centrifuges in 6-9 months.


• Combine centrifuges into cascades, install control equipment, building feed and withdrawal systems, and test the Fuel Enrichment Plant. 1 year


• Enrich enough HEU for a nuclear weapon. 1 year


• Weaponize the HEU. A 'few' months.

Total time to the bomb—about three years.

This result reflects a worst case assessment, and thus is highly uncertain. Though some analysts at the IAEA believe that Iran could assemble centrifuges quicker, other analysts, including those in the US intelligence community, appear to believe that a date of 2009 would be overly optimistic. They believe that Iran is likely to encounter technical difficulties that would significantly delay bringing a centrifuge plant into operation. Factors causing delay include Iran having trouble making so many centrifuges in that time period or it taking longer than expected to overcome difficulties in operating the cascades or building a centrifuge plant.

So remember the lesson from Iraq folks; Invade in haste, repent at leisure.

Have a great weekend.

Google FAQ c. 2025

Oh, it'll happen.

http://blog.outer-court.com/googlerobot/

Uploader Beware

On Wednesday the Bush administration requested that a federal judge order Google, Inc. to turn over a broad range of material from its closely guarded databases. This is linked by an effort by the Justice Department to revive parts of the Children Online Protection Act (COPA) declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 2004. In court papers filed in U.S. District Court in San Jose, Justice Department lawyers revealed that Google has refused to comply with a subpoena issued last year for the records, which include a request for 1 million random Web addresses and records of all Google searches from any one-week period. Note that the government is not doing this in the name of national security. They want to find out how much porn people are looking for.

John Batelle is one of the founders of Wired magazine and is currently a visiting professor at the UC Berkley School of Journalism. He writes:

As we move our data to the servers at Amazon.com, Hotmail.com, Yahoo.com, and Gmail.com, we are making an implicit bargain, one that the public at large is either entirely content with, or, more likely, one that most have not taken much to heart.

That bargain is this: we trust you to not do evil things with our information. We trust that you will keep it secure, free from unlawful government or private search and seizure, and under our control at all times. We understand that you might use our data in aggregate to provide us better and more useful services, but we trust that you will not identify individuals personally through our data, nor use our personal data in a manner that would violate our own sense of
privacy and freedom.

ThatÂ's a pretty large helping of trust we'’re asking companies to ladle onto their corporate plate. And I’m not sure either we or they are entirely sure what to do with the implications of such a transfer. Just thinking about these implications makes a reasonable person'’s head hurt.

Hope Gets the Last Word

Went out for a few drinks after the caucuses on Monday. Discussing politics at the bar is always a risky business but the guy I was with was a big fella so nobody was going to mess with us. Besides, it was a Monday night and not epsecially crowded. But one guy at the end of the bar chimed in to say that -- and I'm paraphasing -- being involved was for suckers and that the system was rigged.

I basically responded by telling him that it was in many respects rigged but not so much that individuals could not be effective at the local level. See post below. Then I saw this essay by Cornell West on Blog For Iowa today and wished I'd had it in front of me Monday.

A specter of despair haunts late 20th-century America. The quality of our lives and the integrity of our souls are in jeopardy. Wealth inequality and class polarization are escalating – with ugly consequences for the most vulnerable among us…

The country is in deep trouble. We've forgotten that a rich life consists fundamentally of serving others, trying to leave the world a little better than you found it. This is true at the personal level. But there's also a political version, which has to do with what you see when you get up in the morning and look in the mirror and ask yourself whether you are simply wasting your time on the planet or spending it in an enriching manner.

We need a moral prophetic minority of all colors who muster the courage to question the powers that be, the courage to be impatient with evil and patient with people, and the courage to fight for social justice. In many instances we will be stepping out on nothing, hoping to land on something. That's the history of black folks in the past and present, and of those of us who value history and struggle

To live is to wrestle with despair yet never to allow despair to have the last word.

Clinton Politics Update.

Our long-time Mayor, LaMetta K. Wynn (pictured) is a very nice person. Now serving towards the end of her third term she has been a moderating influence on the council and is a terrific ambassador for Clinton and Iowa. Her status as a Republican has been generally overlooked or simply unknown. It wasn't really an issue the non-partisan atmosphere of Clinton's home rule City Council elections, in the community as a whole, or the rest of Clinton County, which tends to run about 60% Democratic.

So, just about everyone in the area was shocked to hear that she is planning to run for State Senate against Roger Stewart, Democrat of Preston. Roger is also a very good person, a popular legislator of moderate temperament. Most-importantly for Roger's continued existence as a senator he is very good with business interests in the area. Those two factors have left us all just scratching our heads here at what appears to be a rather suicidal and quixotic decision for a last political act for Mayor Wynn, who will not be running for re-election next year.

As someone who is both a Democrat and a personal admirer if the Mayor I would urge her to reconsider her run. I think her prospects are small and my personal respect for the individual person is not matched in any way by my faith that she is acting independently from a GOP institution which I despise and mistrust. Therefore, if she runs I'm going to have to work hard to defeat her.

If, as I strongly suspect Mayor Wynn is running at the behest and under the direction and financing of Stewart Iverson, Terry Branstead, and Ray Hoffman, then things could get very ugly indeed. I really don't want to see that happen. It has all the makings of a Shakespearean tragedy; The wise old queen, too nice in her dotage to say, 'no' to the schemes and machinations of her ministers, embarks on a final adventure that leads to ruin for her and her reputation. Also reminds me of Ralph Nader, but that's another post.

Plague House, Part 2.

What started in, oh late November with all three kids picking up a winter cough and sniffle has now been drawn out into mid-January. First Molly picked up conjunctivitis right before Christmas. We thought we all dodged that bullet as she recovered and no one else developed it. Everyone had a dry hacking cough with Daddy and Jo caught in earnest just before New Years'. I was so miserable I quit smoking. (YAY!)

On New Years Eve, I took Jo to the E.R. with a 102-degree fever due to secondary infections in her ear and throat. My misery continued into the new year and I finally broke down a week-and-a-half ago, went to the doctor and got some powerful antibiotics for whatever secondary infections I had picked up in my sinues and throat. Jo and I are fully recovered and just as we thought we were out of the woods, on Sunday Laura started hacking and coughing. She had to see the Doctor (same as mine) on Monday anyway but he said she didn't show any signs of secondary infection (the chest thing is viral) and didn't prescribe anything other than a codine-based cough supressant. Then this morning Laura woke up with bright red eyes. Yes, the return of the Pink Eye.

Arrgh! God, I hate Winter.

It Is Going To Be Thin For A While

The new job combined with Great Places and Library responsibilities have me hopping. So, posts are going to be pretty short and possibly spread apart. I'm going to do my best though to do a daily 'quick hit.'

Back From Break

My plan for the holidays included taking a grand total of two extra vacation days to leave me only working three days between December 23 and January 2. This worked fine. What was not in the plan was having all the children and eventually myself get beastly sick with chest colds. This culminated in a (somewhat) recovered Molly going with Laura and Liam to visit friends and family in Chicago. I being very sick myself was to stay home and tend Jo who was also too sick to travel. Finally in grand Anderson tradition Jo and I visited the Mercy E.R. on New Year's Eve for a prescription for arythomycin to combat the secondary infections that had her with a fever of 102. Everyone is on the mend now.

The good news is that on or about December 28 having decided that I could hardly feel much worse and realizing that unless I took drastic action the racking coughs were a foreshadowing of my (sooner rather than later) death stopped smoking. Five days on now and doing fine.

Illness also allowed me to spend quality time with my primary Christmas present, Civilization IV. Basically, a further refined and tweaked version of the classic game with killer 3D graphics.

I also finished Counting Heads by David Marusek. As brilliant a first (SF) novel as I've read in a long time, it really pulls the reader in and features terrific characters and an interesting future. The strength of the plot and characters are undermined by what I thought was a very jarring and incomplete end. But still worthwhile. The Clinton library has a copy.

As of tomorrow I will begin working under the organizational umbrella of the Downstate Illinois technology division of Clifton Gunderson. No more Mr. Do-It-Yourself. I'm getting everything I wished for: less grunt work, more sales work, an actual supervisor and goals. That's the good news. The bad news: I'm getting everything I asked for: less grunt work, more sales work, an actual supervisor and goals. I'm going to be actually expected to work for a living now. So, possibly many fewer posts here. But we'll see.

I'm planning on buying a cheap audio recorder and taking notes when I'm driving -- something I'm going to be doing a lot more of -- and I hope then to have more original material to put up.

Happy New Year everyone. All ten or twenty of you!