Rhymes with Munich?
This post has taken about a week to research. Thank god for Billmon and the Whiskey Bar for coming up with the analogy we were all looking for. As Twain said, "History does not repeat but it does rhyme."
The revelations this weekend that the administration is considering a military strike against Iran and yet more appallingly, contemplating the use of nuclear weapons is deeply disturbing. Make no mistake, the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is really scary. Really, really scary if you happen to live in Israel or Southern Europe.
Sy Hersh's New Yorker article of last week and the related chest thumping of all parties gives the impression of a fast-approaching crisis point. Neocons like to draw comparisons to Munich 1939. But before we all go marching down the road to Armageddon, why not just take a few minutes to review some facts.
The "Iran Problem" can be boiled down rather succinctly actually.
Now, you have two choices here. You can take the above as Gospel and go forth and prostelitize to the masses or you can stick around for the gory details.
President Ahmadinejad is a real islamofascist. That phrase gets overused a lot but here is a guy who really fits the mold in his use of religion and the practice of the political arts of the right as defined by Payne. His election was really an attempt by the religious hierarchy in Iran to get the pro-Western, pro-democracy movements under control. But Ahmadinejad seems to have rapidly gone off the reservation. Lots of parallels to early Nazi Germany here but try to avoid taking them too literally.
As for the whole Germany thing... just go read this Billmon article. All of it. Seriously. Best blog post of the year thus far. See this link in particular for how Clinton punted on the Iranian question in June 2000.
And yes there is also a largish body of evidence that the Iranians have approached the Bush administration on a number of occasions both prior to Ahmadinejad's election and recently to open up a dialog. They have been consistently rebuffed.
Finally, anyone who wants the unvarnished nuke-geek lowdown on Iran's nuclear ambitions and abilities, go check out the site of Arms Control Wonk, Dr. Jeffery Lewis, Executive Director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. Incidentally, he received his B.A. in Philosophy and Political Science from Augustana College.
But back to reality... and the Reality is that bomb-grade uranium must be 85 percent pure not five percent (although anything above 20% is usable for a really low-yield "dirty bomb"). The Reality is that it would take 164 centrifuges about 15 years to produce enough 85 percent 235U to make one bomb. In this series or articles Lewis shows that about Iran needs to put together a facility of approximately 50,000 (or 49,836 more than they currently have) to produce the 25-30kg per year that would reload their civilian reactor -- the cover story -- or produce enough for 25-30 nuclear weapons per year. He uses existing IAEA and other open-source materials to come up with a "worst-case scenario" timeline of three years before Iran is there. That scenario assumes everything goes Iran's way.
Time SHOULD be on our side. We don't have to go balls to the wall with Iran yet. In fact, a thinking person might say that even the worst case scenario means we can wait until after the next presidential elections when hopefully there is a bit more competency, and courage in the national command structure. But with a messianic president facing down a genuine Islamic fascist, all bets are off.
Just remember this as the situation unfolds, 90% of what you will hear from both the Bush Administration and from Iran is complete and utter bullshit.
The revelations this weekend that the administration is considering a military strike against Iran and yet more appallingly, contemplating the use of nuclear weapons is deeply disturbing. Make no mistake, the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is really scary. Really, really scary if you happen to live in Israel or Southern Europe.
Sy Hersh's New Yorker article of last week and the related chest thumping of all parties gives the impression of a fast-approaching crisis point. Neocons like to draw comparisons to Munich 1939. But before we all go marching down the road to Armageddon, why not just take a few minutes to review some facts.
The "Iran Problem" can be boiled down rather succinctly actually.
- Iranian President Ahmadinejad is a really bad guy, especially if you are a pro-democracy Iranian.
- The Clinton Administration had a number of opportunities to prevent things from coming to pass as they have and they failed because of timidity.
- The current administration has had a number of opportunities to prevent things from coming to pass as they have but they have failed because of ideology and stupidity.
- Virulently anti-Israel rhetoric aside Ahmadinejad is far more of a threat to Iranians than he is to anyone else, particularly to Israelis and Americans
- Time is on our side.
Now, you have two choices here. You can take the above as Gospel and go forth and prostelitize to the masses or you can stick around for the gory details.
President Ahmadinejad is a real islamofascist. That phrase gets overused a lot but here is a guy who really fits the mold in his use of religion and the practice of the political arts of the right as defined by Payne. His election was really an attempt by the religious hierarchy in Iran to get the pro-Western, pro-democracy movements under control. But Ahmadinejad seems to have rapidly gone off the reservation. Lots of parallels to early Nazi Germany here but try to avoid taking them too literally.
As for the whole Germany thing... just go read this Billmon article. All of it. Seriously. Best blog post of the year thus far. See this link in particular for how Clinton punted on the Iranian question in June 2000.
And yes there is also a largish body of evidence that the Iranians have approached the Bush administration on a number of occasions both prior to Ahmadinejad's election and recently to open up a dialog. They have been consistently rebuffed.
Finally, anyone who wants the unvarnished nuke-geek lowdown on Iran's nuclear ambitions and abilities, go check out the site of Arms Control Wonk, Dr. Jeffery Lewis, Executive Director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. Incidentally, he received his B.A. in Philosophy and Political Science from Augustana College.
But back to reality... and the Reality is that bomb-grade uranium must be 85 percent pure not five percent (although anything above 20% is usable for a really low-yield "dirty bomb"). The Reality is that it would take 164 centrifuges about 15 years to produce enough 85 percent 235U to make one bomb. In this series or articles Lewis shows that about Iran needs to put together a facility of approximately 50,000 (or 49,836 more than they currently have) to produce the 25-30kg per year that would reload their civilian reactor -- the cover story -- or produce enough for 25-30 nuclear weapons per year. He uses existing IAEA and other open-source materials to come up with a "worst-case scenario" timeline of three years before Iran is there. That scenario assumes everything goes Iran's way.
Time SHOULD be on our side. We don't have to go balls to the wall with Iran yet. In fact, a thinking person might say that even the worst case scenario means we can wait until after the next presidential elections when hopefully there is a bit more competency, and courage in the national command structure. But with a messianic president facing down a genuine Islamic fascist, all bets are off.
Just remember this as the situation unfolds, 90% of what you will hear from both the Bush Administration and from Iran is complete and utter bullshit.
Labels: Foreign Policy
posted by -cman- at 4/18/2006 05:43:00 AM
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