Election Predictions

Time to put down my prognostication markers. For anyone interested, for the first time in a long time I will not be taking the day off on Election Day. But I will work the phones, walk precincts or what ever from 5 p.m. until Cocktail Time (8 p.m.).

Governor: Culver in a squeaker. Less than 20,000 vote margin.
IA-01: Braley 53 - 47 Whalen
IA-02: Leach 51 - 49 Loesback
IA-03: Boswell 53 - 47 Lamberti
Sec of Ag: Northerly 55 - 45 O'Brien. Odd allegations of animal cruelty will probably scupper Denise O'Brien.

State Senate-13: Stewart 60 - 40 Wynn. Lametta will get bupkus in Jackson and Dubuque counties and is not nearly as popular in Clinton as a senate candidate as she is as a mayor.
State Rep-26: Bukta 59 - 41 Shields.
Sate Rep-83 Olson 52 - 48 Kauffman.

Nationally I'm thinking a 25 seat pickup for the Democrats in the House, more than enough to seat Ms. Pelosi (or someone else?) as Speaker.


The Senate is a good deal murkier. There are a lot of races that are dead heats. It will all come down to turnout. I think that at the end of the day, the Democratic and Independent bases are more motivated to vote for change than the GOP base is to defend the increasingly indefensible. I think Lieberman will beat Lamont and the Senate will end up 50-48-2 (Bernie Sanders wins in Vermont). If Leiberman caucuses with the Democrats then that means that Mister Vice President is going to be spending a lot if time in the Senate for the next two years.