Iraq: Beginning of Endgame?

I'm sure many have noticed my absence. Coming to grips with the new job.

Took a nice trip into Chicago to spend Thanksgiving with Laura's family there. I intentionally shied away from news but couldn't escape the images on the TV. Now, after a bit of catch-up upon arriving back home it seems time to provide some hardcore analysis.

I think that this may be the beginning of the great unravelling of our little experiment in bringing democracy to the Arab peoples. It will unfold slowly and in fits and starts but I think this is the beginning of the slow slide down into disaster. In February of this year, I wrote that the bombing of the Shiite Shrine of the Imam Hasan Al Askari would be the historical bookmark that signaled the end of any hope for a unified Iraq. I think that the events of this Thanksgiving similarly signal the effective end of American control over events and the beginning of the end for the current Iraqi governement.

John Robb breaks down the Social Disruption In Sadr City

While the governments of Iraq, Iran, Syria, and the US engage in the motions of legacy power politics, Iraq's global guerrillas are decisively rending the social fabric of Iraq and potentially the Middle East. November 23, 2006 provided a solid example of an inflection point in this type disruption (like the attack on Samarra earlier this year), with a triple car bomb in Baghdad's Sadr city (200 dead and 250 wounded) and an attempted overrun of Iraq's health ministry (run by Sadr's party).

First, this attack eliminates the remaining legitimacy of the current government. It is also a deep blow to the legitimacy of Sadr's movement (despite attempts to shift blame to the US Army for the failure) since it couldn't even provide basic security in both of its showcase properties. Second, to regain legitimacy and exact revenge, the Mehdi army will certainly go onto the offensive (in contrast to inactivity the government). This offensive will likely force them to move beyond abductions and into large scale assaults in order to replicate the level of this attack. By doing so, it will achieve a goal of the attackers: it will put these militias in direct confrontation with the US army and the few functional Iraqi army units as they range beyond the borders of Sadr city.

They key question that should be in the minds of all Americans now is: What's the best way to get our men and women out of there? Because we will have to get out. It is just a matter of how bloody a trail leave behind.